Beating the Odds: A Woman at the Final Table
Spanish poker pro Leo Margets becomes first woman in 30 years to reach the final table of the World Series of Poker Main Event.
Early this morning of July 14 2025, a long awaited and overdue dream came true: a woman made the final table of the World Series of Poker Main Event. The last time that happened? In 1995, when Hall of Famer Barbara Enright did the same, placing 5th out of 273 players.
In recent years, women in the World Series of Poker Main Event represent about 4% in a field hovering around 10,000 players.
Each year, the odds of having at least one woman at the final table should be about 30%, assuming even distribution in skill. If that sounds like a random estimate to you, let me break it down: 4% of nine is .36. That means .36 of the final table should be women and 8.64 should be men. However, due to combinatorics (the possibility of more than one woman being at the final table) the true odds of at least one woman getting there go down to ~30%.
The math aside, it has been incredibly frustrating to watch year after year, when women got tantalizingly close only to bust just before the buzzer. Like last year when the legendary Kristen Foxen placed 13th. But the most heartbreaking finish of all was In 2012, when two women, Gaëlle Baumann and Elisabeth Hille finished 10th and 11th respectively.
Not this time. Leo Margets is beating the odds. This week, from July 15-16 as the final table plays out, she’ll be playing for the $10 Million top prize—and she’s already guaranteed at least one million. If she makes it all the way to the top, becoming the first female poker World Champion, she could ignite a poker boom. As the Queen’s Gambit did for chess, a victory by Leo could generate mainstream interest in poker for all genders, not just women. She makes the game seem joyful, fun and skillful, a rare triad. Embracing the moment, Leo is in her own words, “living the dream.”
Beyond poker, Leo’s performance sends an important message to anyone in a field where they are outnumbered: it may be a difficult road, but if you get there, you’ll have countless new fans rooting for you.
The rest of the final table is also stacked with talent, including:
Former Main Event final-tablist, PokerStars Pro Kenny Hallaert. Kenny is universally respected in the game, for both his play, his work on structures and game design, and his generous spirit. His sportsmanship was on full display over the past few days: even when getting a little unlucky, his instinct is NOT to grimace or insult. In one such instance, he smiled and gave his opponent a fist-bump.
Kenny’s post day eight selfie with his final tablemates. Seven-time WSOP champion Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi. An unpredictable poker genius. Like Leo, he also has a blast while doing it. Watching him is a lesson in itself—they just don’t teach his style in solvers or videos.
Everyone at the final has a great storyline (check out this thread, for example.) It is one of the best WSOP final tables in history. I’ll be watching each hand.
As for my trip out to Vegas? I was there for a week1, and cashed all three events I played, including the WSOP Ladies Event. The bracelet went to Shiina Okamoto, who also won it in 2024 and came in 2nd in 2023. We’ll do the math on that sensational feat in a future post2. Unfortunately, no final tables for me. You see, that’s where all the money is at. But there’s still some play left. Because a female World Poker champion would be a big win for all of us.
A shorter trip than usual due to book deadlines. But I handed it in! So expect more poker, and more posts!
I did the commentary for this historic event with the legendary Lon McEachern. To be aired on CBS Sports in the coming weeks.
I think the initial maths in this article explaining why the odds of having at least one woman at the FT is ~30% is off?
I'm not a mathematician but if 4% of the field are women and assuming equal ability, then 4% of the final table should be women = 0.36 people. I agree with that part. But then comparing this 0.36 people on the FT with 30% chance of at least one woman as though the 0.36 was = 36% (if that's what you're doing) I think is incorrect.
I checked with copilot (I know that's not necessarily correct) and it said "The probability of having more than 1 individual of type A in a random sample of 9 from a population where 4% are type A is approximately 4.78%"
Congratulations to Leo Margets. It seems she had a bit of bad luck in the finals, where one of her opponents beat her by getting a flush with the final card. Hopefully she'll be back at the final table next year!